Demand Forecasting
Predicting how the demand for your services will change - and when.
Demand forecasting projects how patient demand will evolve over time, service by service, from the drivers that actually move it: population change, disease trends, referral behaviour and competitive entry. It builds the time-horizon picture - the base case and the scenario range - that capacity, staffing and service planning need to look ahead rather than react.
What this service covers
- Demand drivers and their expected evolution
- Service-level demand projection over defined horizons
- Population, trend and epidemiology inputs
- Referral and competitive dynamics
- Base, cautious and ambitious demand scenarios
- Seasonality and ramp-up phasing
- Sensitivity of demand to the key assumptions
- Capacity and staffing implications
- Review and refresh cadence for forecasts
- Documented forecast model
Our process
- Define the demand drivers and horizons
- Build the service-level demand model
- Run scenarios and sensitivities
- Translate demand into capacity implications
- Set the review and refresh cadence
- Document the forecast and its assumptions
Frequently asked questions
How is demand forecasting different from demand assessment?
Demand assessment sizes the demand a project can expect today and at ramp-up. Demand forecasting projects how that demand will evolve over time from its drivers, across horizons and scenarios.
How is it different from population analysis?
Population analysis profiles the resident population and its needs. Demand forecasting goes further - it turns population, trends and behaviour into a projection of actual service demand over time.
What horizons does it cover?
Horizons are set to the decision - typically one to ten years - with near-term years more certain and later years presented as a scenario range.
What does it feed?
Capacity sizing, bed strength, staffing, service planning and expansion decisions that need a forward view of demand.
Why refresh the forecast?
Because demand drivers change; a periodic refresh keeps the capacity and service decisions built on the forecast valid.