Demand Assessment
Estimating how many patients a hospital can expect, and from where.
Demand assessment estimates the patient volumes a proposed hospital can realistically expect: the size of the catchment it can draw from, the share of health needs it can reasonably attract, and how those translate into outpatient, inpatient and emergency volumes service by service. We validate every volume with demand drivers so capacity and financial planning start from a defensible number rather than an optimistic one.
What this service covers
- Catchment definition and population segmentation for the proposed location
- Health-seeking behaviour and utilisation inputs for the catchment
- Service-wise patient volume estimates across outpatient, inpatient and emergency
- Admission and bed-day estimation from expected case mix
- Seasonal and cyclical variation in demand by service
- Payer mix and price sensitivity effects on volumes and mix
- Referral, insurance network and walk-in contribution to volumes
- Comparison of projected demand with existing supply in the catchment
- Downside and upside scenarios around the base-case volumes
- A volume summary that feeds capacity sizing and financial planning
Our process
- Define the catchment and the service basket to assess
- Collect demand driver and utilisation inputs
- Model patient volumes by service line
- Validate the estimates against local evidence and comparable facilities
- Stress-test the base case with scenario analysis
- Hand the volumes to capacity and financial planning
Frequently asked questions
How is demand assessment different from demand forecasting?
Demand assessment estimates the start-up volumes a specific project can attract from its catchment. Demand forecasting projects how demand will grow over time using trends and drivers.
How realistic are the volume estimates?
Volumes are built from catchment demographics, utilisation behaviour and documented demand drivers, then validated against what comparable facilities achieve and stress-tested with lower and upper scenarios.
What inputs do you need from the hospital?
The proposed location, service scope, intended capacity range and target timing. If catchment data is limited we collect and verify it during the study.
How are the volumes used?
They size bed capacity, theatres, diagnostics and staffing, and form the revenue basis for the financial model.
Does this cover a specific city or region?
Yes - the catchment is defined around the actual project location from verified demographic and geographic inputs, without assumptions about markets we have not studied.